Anthropic Co-founder Jack Clark: 60% Chance of Recursive AI Self-Improvement by 2028
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark has publicly stated a 60% probability that AI systems capable of recursive self-improvement will emerge by end of 2028, based on analysis of hundreds of public data sources. His estimate aligns closely with OpenAI's stated internal projection of automated AI research capability around March 2028. Wharton's Ethan Mollick noted that Clark's reliance on public sources is notable given his access to Anthropic's internal development trajectory, implying his public data is consistent with what he observes internally.
Why It Matters
Two independent frontier lab co-founders converging on a 2028 timeline for autonomous AI research represents a rare moment of cross-institutional consensus on one of AI development's highest-stakes milestones — and a signal that this timeline is now priced into internal planning at both labs.