FT Data: Hyperscaler AI ROI Negative — Google -15%, Meta -28%, Oracle -35%
Financial Times data modeling AI return on investment under best-case assumptions shows negative returns for every major hyperscaler: Microsoft -9%, Google -15%, Meta -28%, Oracle -35%, with Amazon barely in positive territory. The analysis suggests companies are spending at trillion-dollar annual capex rates betting that future AI demand growth will eventually catch up to current infrastructure investment — a bet that requires sustained adoption curves analysts consider uncertain.
Why It Matters
Negative ROI at this scale across all hyperscalers simultaneously signals that the AI infrastructure buildout may be running ahead of monetizable demand — a dynamic that could trigger capex retrenchment if adoption growth disappoints over the next 12-18 months.